With Taliban advance coming way ahead of what most analysts predicted. The writing seems on the wall when it comes to Afghanistan's future. Past few months have seen a roller coaster in Afghanistan, with yet another super power packing their bags in haste, the US backed Afghan government fell like dominos. With recent reports from Kabul on 15th August 2021, Former President Ashraf Ghani left the presedential palace finally leaving the country proving that he had little to no role to play in Afghanistan.
What Now?
It seems that Taliban have learned alot from their mistakes in past. Giving subtle statements particulularly to western media when it comes to letting women work and study, the Taliban have shown a surprising restraint in their advance while taking control of most of the country before finally knocking down the doors of Kabul. It seems that the world atlarge and regional powers have all accepted the ground reality and have already made arrangements with the new potential power brokers of Afganistan. Without a doubt the region will now be back to its natural players, mainly China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran. With Indias future looking uncertain as its billions of dollars pumped in Afghanistan seem to be a lost cause. However, India as a country may still be interested to play its role in the regional stake.
Situation Requires Patience
As of now, reports have showed that Dr. Abdullah Abdullah is the main negotiator from the former power structure with Hamid Karzai giving remote stranded statements and a delegation of Afghan politicians reaching Pakistan along with Taliban leadership and Afghan Govt Negotiators in Qatar, it seems it’s more of a deal of unconditional surrender. It will however be interesting to see how Taliban walk the talk in future. It seems an open and shut case that Taliban will be potential front runners to lead Afghanistan now, the question is have they adapted and learned enough to manage cosmetics. Potential threat of ISIS in the region seems to make Afghan Taliban look like angels to former enemies and it seems that the world expects a less extremist power in Afghanistan to ensure savagery like ISIS is avoided. It’s almost a deja-vu like situation today in Afghanistan as the power structure seems to shift back towards its state of the 90's with uncertainty looming large.
The Prediction
It seems as the end game nears in Kabul, the future will see a Taliban government covertly backed by the US for at least some time, with India as a minor player again, and China, Russia and Pakistan seem to be the most powerful logical contenders to now run the show in the region. Having said that, things won’t be as easy as before as the so called "New Taliban" strategy still has to unfold. It can how ever be predicted that the outcome so far is a peaceful transition of power considering there have been no mass reports of civilian killings, revenge and public assassinations so far by the Taliban. The Taliban have announced a general pardon for their enemies so far and now are opening negotiations when they are in position of extreme advantage. It may be a whole new era of unpredictable and stable Afghanistan which may be unconventional for the world’s norms but would exist with relative peace unless another power in the region moves ahead from the shadows to repeat mistakes of USSR and USA.
